If Kamala Harris loses, this will be why

After all the lies, the violence of January 6, 2021, and the most recent nonsense about migrants eating people’s dogs, how could 80 million-odd people still want to vote for Donald Trump? For those of us on the left who follow American politics, the idea that Donald Trump could actually return to power seems astonishing. Some want to dismiss Trump voters as being all ignorant hicks. Unfortunately, that doesn’t tell us very much.

So, if Harris loses, here’s my take on what has gone wrong. I’m assuming below that people paid at least passing attention to what’s been happening, so I’m not providing a lot of background information.

For those who say reproductive rights are their number one issue, Harris is well ahead in the polls. But only 22 percent of voters, mostly women, say that. The Border and the economy are still more important than reproductive rights for large segments of the public.

First, the Democrats waited too late to do anything about the southern border. Border crossings were running at about a half a million a year until the Biden presidency, when they surged to two million a year. There was a bipartisan border control bill ready to become legislation until Trump told the republicans to can it. Biden then issued an executive order which caused the border police to turn most people back at the border and return them to Mexico. Harris can say till she’s blue in the face, and it’s true. But so is the response that if Biden could have controlled the situation through an executive order, he could have done that three years ago. When confronted with this in interviews, Harris has basically floundered. Most Americans approve of migration, but they don’t want the chaotic scenes they’ve seen regularly on the news.

Second, there has been a surge in certain prices, particularly food, rent and petrol. Americans seem to talk as if the president personally controlled gas prices. This is frankly absurd. Gas prices have come down from a peak in April. But consumers still resent the level of some prices, and Harris has failed to produce a credible plan to reduce rents or food prices. Frequently, the things she says are described by voters in response to questions about this as being “word salads”. (See the New York Times article below.)

Trump has threatened to use the military against domestic political critics if he’s re-elected. He has suggested he could “suspend the constitution.” It seems amazing to Australians that people would trade off living in a democracy for promises on grocery prices, but many apparently don’t believe Trump really is a threat to democracy. I think their complacency is dangerous.

Harris has done some things right. Eight years ago, Hilary Clinton made the mistake of not campaigning in the rust belt states because the democrats thought they had them ‘in the bag’. Harris has campaigned heavily in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Hilary Clinton made the mistake of describing Trump voters as a ‘basket of deplorables’ i.e. just awful people. That comment cost Clinton votes because it made her sound like an arrogant person looking down on half the population: exactly what a lot of Americans hate about Democratic Party politicians. .

Harris is ahead of Trump in national polls, but because of the rural bias in the electoral college, she needs to be ahead by at least three percent to be confident of victory. For those who don’t understand the electoral college system, see the BBC article below.

I’m afraid Trump will win this election. I hope I’m wrong. But if it happens, three years of inaction on the southern border and Harris’ failure to come out with a more coherent economic policy will largely be to blame. Reproductive rights are hugely important, but they’re not the prime issue to a sufficient number of voters.

An explanation of Biden’s executive order on  immigration https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-signs-executive-order-shutting-southern-border-rcna155426 

Quote: Ms. Harris, she said, simply offered “word salad.”  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/19/us/politics/harris-campaign-western-pennsylvania.html 

An explanation of the electoral college: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53558176